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When Does a Second COVID Surge End? Look at the Maths

Phys.org

Photo: Nick James & Max Menzies

Phys.org

Mathematicians have developed a framework to determine when regions enter and exit COVID-19 infection surge periods, providing a useful tool for public health policymakers to help manage the coronavirus pandemic.

The first published paper on second-surge COVID-19 infections from US states suggests that policymakers should look for demonstrable turning points in data rather than stable or insufficiently declining infection rates before lifting restrictions.

Mathematicians Nick James and Max Menzies have published what they believe is the first analysis of COVID-19 infection rates in US states to identify turning points in data that indicate ...